Abstract: Bayesian reasoning has been applied formally to statistical inference, machine learning and analysing scientific method. Here I apply it informally to more common forms of inference, namely natural language arguments. I analyse a variety of traditional fallacies, deductive, inductive and causal, and find more merit in them than is generally acknowledged. Bayesian principles provide a framework for understanding ordinary arguments which is well worth developing.
Applying bayesian inference to natural language arguments is related to a concept I have thought of in the past as folk probability being applied with significant bias in real-time in various decision-making situations.